How I Screen Peer-to-Peer Loans to Maximize Returns
Peer-to-peer lending has been part of my passive-income strategy for more than a decade. Over that time, I've experienced both sides of P2P lending: the attractive interest payments that make the asset class appealing and the inevitable defaults that remind you exactly why borrowers are paying those high rates in the first place. Today, I use Prosper for my peer-to-peer lending investments. I previously invested through LendingClub as well, before it discontinued its traditional retail peer-to-peer lending platform.
Over the years, I've developed a relatively simple screening process. My objective isn't to eliminate defaults — that's impossible. Instead, I'm looking for loans where I believe the interest rate I'm receiving adequately compensates me for the probability of default.
Start With the Highest APR
When reviewing available Prosper loans, I generally sort them by APR from highest to lowest. High-APR borrowers obviously represent greater perceived credit risk — that's precisely why they're paying higher rates. But I don't automatically invest in every high-interest loan. The APR gets a loan onto my radar. The borrower's credit history and stated purpose determine whether it stays there. I'm essentially looking for the best borrowers within the highest-yielding portion of the available loan pool.
Filter 1: No Delinquencies
Once I've identified a high-APR loan, one of the first things I examine is the borrower's payment history. I want to see no history of delinquencies or late payments. A borrower can have a relatively low credit score for many reasons — high credit utilization, a limited credit history, large existing balances. But I view an established pattern of paying obligations on time differently. If someone has consistently paid their obligations on time despite having less-than-perfect credit, I believe there's a greater probability they'll continue that behavior going forward.
Filter 2: No Collections
I generally eliminate prospective loans when the borrower's credit history shows collections. This doesn't mean someone with a collection account is destined to default — there can be legitimate explanations. But if I'm accepting the elevated default risk associated with high-APR loans, I want the rest of the borrower's credit profile to give me reasons to believe that risk might be manageable. A clean collections history is one of those signals.
Filter 3: Debt Consolidation Only
I primarily look for loans identified as debt consolidation. A borrower may have accumulated multiple credit-card balances and wants to consolidate those obligations into a single fixed payment — that creates a financial story I can understand. I'm generally more comfortable lending money to someone attempting to restructure existing debt than financing discretionary spending. There is an obvious risk: a borrower could consolidate credit-card debt and then run those cards back up again. That's one of the risks I'm accepting in exchange for the higher interest rate.
Defaults Are Part of the Business
Anyone considering peer-to-peer lending needs to understand something from the beginning: some borrowers are not going to pay you back. I've been investing in P2P loans for more than ten years, and defaults aren't theoretical to me. They happen.
The objective of my strategy has never been to achieve a 0% default rate. Instead, I'm trying to construct a portfolio where the interest generated by the performing loans is high enough to absorb losses from borrowers who default while still producing an attractive overall return. Suppose a portfolio of high-risk loans produces a gross yield of 20%. If defaults and other losses ultimately cost the portfolio 8%, the investor could theoretically still generate something around a 12% return. I don't need every loan to succeed. I need the portfolio to succeed.
Higher-APR loans provide a larger potential cushion against defaults. A lower-interest loan provides a smaller margin for error — if I'm earning 7% and experience meaningful defaults, those losses can quickly consume a substantial percentage of my interest income. That's why I don't simply sort by APR and start investing. The high APR is only the beginning of the screening process.
More Than Ten Years of P2P Lending
My strategy has evolved during that time, platforms have changed, and the industry itself looks considerably different than when I started. But the basic philosophy behind my screening process has remained surprisingly consistent: seek high yields, but don't blindly chase yield.
I want the high APR. But I also want evidence that the borrower has historically taken their financial obligations seriously. That's why I look for borrowers with no history of late payments, no collections, and a stated purpose that makes financial sense to me.
Peer-to-peer lending occupies an interesting place in my passive-income portfolio. It's certainly not as predictable as a Treasury bond, and the principal isn't protected from borrower defaults. But that's exactly why the potential returns can be attractive. My job as the investor is to determine whether I'm being adequately compensated for taking that risk — and after more than ten years, I've found that my preferred approach is surprisingly simple: start with high APRs, eliminate borrowers with late-payment or collection histories, focus on debt-consolidation loans, diversify heavily, and evaluate the performance of the portfolio as a whole.
This section describes the author's personal investment strategy and experience for educational and informational purposes only. It is not financial, investment, tax, or legal advice, nor is it a recommendation to invest through Prosper or any other peer-to-peer lending platform. Peer-to-peer loans can default, investors can lose principal, and past performance does not guarantee future results.